Vanda Risk Update: A few last minute thoughts

Florida’s results will be the single most important development for investors to follow on election day.


The margin of victory will likely determine the likelihood and resolve of a potential state-level GOP challenge.

While polls have tightened since the 1H of October, Biden is still expected to garner around 240,000 more votes in Florida than Trump. That’s a pretty decent lead, and it sits right in the middle of the 5% and 10% ballot invalidation levels that we’ve mentioned before (Chart 1).

Margin of victory that ends this presidential election probably sits north of +400,000 votes.


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