2nd November 2020 - Vanda Risk Update: A few last minute thoughts

Florida’s results will be the single most important development for investors to follow on election day.

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The margin of victory will likely determine the likelihood and resolve of a potential state-level GOP challenge.

While polls have tightened since the 1H of October, Biden is still expected to garner around 240,000 more votes in Florida than Trump. That’s a pretty decent lead, and it sits right in the middle of the 5% and 10% ballot invalidation levels that we’ve mentioned before (Chart 1).

Margin of victory that ends this presidential election probably sits north of +400,000 votes.

 

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